Quarterly Commentary 2017

In the U.S., third-quarter real GDP growth was 3.2% (annualized), the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2015 and following similarly robust second-quarter growth (+3.1%). As expected, the Fed hiked the Fed Funds target by 25 bps in December.

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Real GDP growth was revised up to 3.1% (annualized) for 2Q17, the fastest pace since 1Q15. While hurricanes may provide a temporary setback to U.S. growth, rebuilding efforts are likely to provide a boost to GDP in 4Q17 and into 2018. Non-U.S. developed markets economies continued to gain traction.

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The U.S. economy entered its 96th month of expansion, but its pace of growth slowed and economic data was mixed. Inflation was lower than expected. Projections for 2017 U.S. GDP growth were cut by the IMF from 2.3% to 2.1% in response to diminished hopes for fiscal stimulus, including tax reform. Overseas, the news was brighter.

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Economies in the U.S. and Europe continued to gain traction. Expectations for lower taxes, reduced regulation, and other pro-growth reforms helped propel U.S. equity prices to new highs. In Europe, economic momentum picked up. In Japan, growth remained weak but positive. 

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